More homes on the market, fewer homes under contract, and slightly higher average sales prices. What does this mean for Arizona homebuyers?

If you've been thinking about buying a home in the Phoenix area, September's housing market numbers offer some encouraging news.

According to September 2026 ARMLS market data covering Maricopa County and surrounding areas, buyers have more homes to choose from compared with this time last year. At the same time, fewer homes are under contract, potentially creating more opportunities to compare properties and negotiate.

But does that mean home prices are dropping? Not necessarily.

Let's take a closer look at the numbers and what they could mean if you're considering buying a home in Goodyear, Buckeye, Surprise, Avondale, or the surrounding West Valley.

September 2026 Housing Market at a Glance

Market Indicator September 2026 Change From September 2025
Active & Coming-Soon Listings 27,067 Up 7.2%
Homes Under Contract 4,854 Down 15.4%
Closed Sales 5,879 Down 4.4%
Average Sales Price $596,969 Up 2.4%

Source: ARMLS, September 2026. Statistics cover Maricopa County and surrounding areas, not exclusively the Phoenix West Valley.

These numbers suggest that buyers may have more choices than they did a year ago, even though the overall average sales price remains slightly higher.

Are There More Homes for Sale in Phoenix?

Yes. Active and coming-soon listings increased 7.2% compared with September 2025.

At the end of September 2026, there were 27,067 active and coming-soon listings.

For homebuyers, an increase in available inventory can be encouraging.

More homes on the market may mean:

  • More properties to compare within your preferred price range.

  • Additional opportunities to explore different neighborhoods.

  • Less pressure to make an immediate decision on certain properties.

  • Potentially more negotiating opportunities with motivated sellers.

However, inventory isn't distributed evenly across the Phoenix area.

A buyer searching for a home in Buckeye may encounter different conditions than someone looking in Goodyear or Surprise.

Even within the same city, market conditions can vary considerably depending on the neighborhood, price range, home features, and property condition.

The takeaway: More inventory is encouraging, but understanding your specific market is more valuable than relying on regional averages alone.

Are Homes Taking Longer to Sell?

September's numbers provide another interesting clue about buyer activity.

There were 4,854 homes under contract, a decrease of 15.4% compared with September 2025.

This indicates fewer homes were under contract at the reporting point compared with a year earlier.

When more homes are available and fewer are under contract, buyers may encounter less competition in certain market segments.

That could translate into opportunities to:

  • Take more time evaluating available homes.

  • Compare resale properties against new construction options.

  • Negotiate on price or contract terms.

  • Request seller contributions toward eligible closing costs.

But it's important not to assume every seller is willing to negotiate.

Homes that are priced appropriately, well-maintained, and located in desirable areas can still attract significant buyer interest.

The takeaway: Buyers may have more negotiating opportunities, but those opportunities depend on the individual property and local market conditions.

Are Phoenix Home Prices Finally Dropping?

This is probably one of the biggest questions buyers are asking.

Despite the increase in available inventory, the average sales price in September 2026 was $596,969, up 2.4% compared with September 2025.

That means the overall average sales price was slightly higher than a year earlier.

However, there's an important distinction between an average sales price and the value of a particular home.

The average can change based on the types, sizes, locations, and price ranges of homes that sold during the month.

For example, an increase in higher-priced home sales could influence the overall average without indicating that every home's value increased.

That's why I encourage buyers to look at recent comparable sales in the specific neighborhoods they're considering.

If you're searching for a home in Goodyear, Buckeye, Surprise, or Avondale, neighborhood-level information can help you better understand whether a property is competitively priced.

The takeaway: More homes for sale doesn't automatically mean lower home prices. Evaluating individual properties remains important.

What About Mortgage Interest Rates and Affordability?

For many buyers, the biggest concern isn't necessarily the price of the home.

It's the monthly payment.

Mortgage rates, property taxes, homeowners insurance, HOA fees, and other ownership expenses all influence affordability.

The good news is that there may be opportunities to explore financing arrangements that help reduce some of those costs.

1. Seller Concessions Toward Closing Costs

Some sellers may be willing to contribute toward a buyer's eligible closing costs.

Depending on the financing program and transaction terms, seller concessions may help reduce the amount of cash a buyer needs at closing.

2. Mortgage Rate Buydowns

A mortgage rate buydown may allow a buyer to obtain a lower interest rate.

There are different types of buydowns, including:

  • Temporary buydowns: Reduce the effective payment during an initial period before returning to the full note-rate payment.

  • Permanent buydowns: Generally involve paying discount points to obtain a lower interest rate for the loan term.

The cost and benefits vary, so it's important to review the details with your lender.

3. New Construction Builder Incentives

Some homebuilders offer financing incentives on eligible homes.

These may include:

  • Promotional mortgage interest rates.

  • Contributions toward closing costs.

  • Financing incentives through a preferred lender.

  • Incentives on completed or quick move-in homes.

However, advertised incentives can come with restrictions, deadlines, or lender requirements.

Before choosing an incentive, compare the home's total purchase price, financing costs, and long-term monthly payment.

The takeaway: Don't evaluate a home based solely on its asking price or an advertised mortgage rate. Compare the complete financial picture.

Should You Buy New Construction or Resale in Today's Market?

With more homes available, buyers may have additional opportunities to compare resale homes with new construction.

Both options have advantages.

Resale homes may offer established neighborhoods, mature landscaping, and opportunities to negotiate directly with an individual seller.

New construction homes may offer contemporary floor plans, builder warranties, and potential financing incentives.

The timeline is another important consideration.

A completed resale home or quick move-in new construction home may offer a shorter path to closing than a home that hasn't been built yet.

If you're comparing these options, I recommend considering your budget, preferred location, desired features, and ideal moving timeline before making a decision.

Related video: New Construction vs. Resale Homes in Arizona: Which Is Better for You?

Watch the September 2026 Housing Market Update

Want a quick explanation of the numbers?

Watch my September 2026 housing market update, where I discuss inventory, homes under contract, prices, and opportunities buyers may want to explore.

What Should West Valley Homebuyers Do Next?

If you're considering buying a home in Goodyear, Buckeye, Surprise, Avondale, or the surrounding Phoenix West Valley, here are a few practical steps to get started.

  • Review your budget and comfortable monthly payment.

  • Speak with a lender about your financing options.

  • Compare resale and new construction homes.
  • Identify the neighborhoods and home features that matter most.
  • Explore potential seller concessions or builder incentives.
  • Review recent comparable sales before making an offer.
  • Create a buying strategy that fits your goals and timeline.

You don't have to make all these decisions before talking with a real estate agent.

In fact, helping you work through these questions is part of my Smart Start Buyer Process.

Start With My Smart Start Buyer Process

Buying a home is a significant decision, and I believe the process should begin with understanding your needs—not immediately scheduling home showings.

My Smart Start Buyer Process includes four steps:

Step 1: Smart Start Buyer Call

We have an initial conversation about your goals, timeline, and questions.

Step 2: Smart Moves Buyer Strategy Meeting

We take a closer look at your options and develop a personalized home-buying strategy.

Step 3: Smart Moves Exploratory Tour

We explore neighborhoods and housing options so you can better understand what fits your needs.

Step 4: Find Your New Home

When you're ready, we begin the process of finding and purchasing the home that's right for you.

Whether you're considering resale or new construction, my goal is to help you make informed decisions with confidence.

Download Your Free West Valley Home-Buying Guide

Not sure where to begin?

My free Your Guide to Buying a Home in the West Valley explains the buying process, financing considerations, and important steps to prepare for your next home.

Download Your Free Buyer Guide

Or, if you're ready to talk about your plans, call or text me at 623-252-9350 to schedule your Smart Start Buyer Call.

Smart Starts Lead to Smart Moves!

Cinda Rose, REALTOR® | Realty ONE Group | cindarose.com

Market information is based on September 2026 ARMLS reporting for Maricopa County and surrounding areas. Regional statistics may not reflect conditions in individual West Valley communities. Financing incentives, concessions, and loan programs vary by property, lender, and buyer eligibility.